This paper discusses two variants of the accessibility paradigm for transport planning. The extensive paradigm aims to radically overhaul transport planning to incorporate issues of environmental quality, urban sprawl, safety and health. Its adoption is unlikely in the medium term and raises questions about the role of the transport planner. The limited paradigm calls for transport planning to adopt accessibility indicators in place of mobility indicators. However this will not meet the underlying goals of the accessibility critique. A change in the focus of transport planning is needed from the functioning of transport networks to the service that differently placed people receive from the transport system.
This paper reviews the accuracy of OECD projections over the 1982-1987 period. It is shown that, although the evolution of the economic climate was correctly projected, projection errors for economic activity and inflation varied significantly both through the period under consideration and between countries. But the average absolute error in GNP over the entire 1982/87 period was less than 1 percentage point. The biggest errors were made in the first half of the period and were more important for the smaller countries. An attempt is made to assess the likely impact of differences between assumed and realised economic policies, energy prices and exchange rates on the size and direction of the projection errors ...
This paper reviews the accuracy of the OECD Economic Outlook projections — both “current year” and “year ahead” — for output growth, inflation and current account balances (as a percentage of GDP) for the major seven countries, as well as projections for world trade growth. The sample period differs somewhat between the variables, depending on data availability, but it runs until 1998 in all cases. Several evaluation criteria were used to assess the accuracy of the OECD Economic Outlook projections. These include an inspection of projection error summary statistics; comparisons with “naive” alternative forecasts; statistical tests for unbiasedness and efficiency; and testing for directional accuracy. In addition, the paper provides an examination of the performance of OECD Economic Outlook projections over different time periods. The findings suggest that, on the basis of the conventional statistical criteria, the current year projections outperform the year ahead projections ...
In the beginning of the 1990s, Dutch government and representatives of employers’ organisations have urged the higher professional education sector (HBO) to restructure the supply of the programmes in the sub-sectors of HBO. The sub-sectors were challenged to cut back the number of study programmes to increase the efficiency of the supply. A theoretical framework based on resource dependence and network analysis is proposed to explain why different sub-sectors have reacted differently to the pressure to reduce the pressure. An empirical analysis is carried out for foursub-sectors: agriculture, economics, engineering and the socialcultural sector. The hypotheses could only partly be confirmed, but the simultaneous effect of government dependence, labour market dependence and sub-sector heterogeneity can be shown. Given the restricted number of cases, suggestions for further research are formulated. At the same time, it is implied to complement the chosen quantitative macro-approach with micro-analyses (case studies) on the emergence and disappearance of study programmes.
This paper maps the evolving data localisation landscape. It shows that the number of data localisation measures is on the rise and that the measures themselves are becoming more restrictive. The paper highlights the need to better understand and monitor the evolving regulatory environment with a view to enabling empirical analysis of the economic and societal implications of data localisation. This is an issue which is particularly important in the context of ongoing discussions on data localisation, be they in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) or in the context of the WTO Joint Statement Initiative on e-commerce.
Government debt has many characteristics and thus cannot be fully captured by one indicator. There are several different ways of defining government debt, and each definition can lead to different interpretations of a government’s financial situation. As a result, international comparisons of government debt statistics must be conducted with care. This working paper will summarise some of the major differences in defining and measuring government debt and, based on available data, will demonstrate the impact of these differences when comparing the level of government debt as a percentage of GDP across various OECD countries. This paper will also look at the challenges in incorporating government-sponsored pension schemes in government debt statistics and the implications for making international comparisons of government debt. It will then attempt to compare government debt statistics by adjusting for some of these challenges. It will also present a complementary approach for analysing and comparing government debt, using projections of old age dependency and economic growth in order to provide additional context. The key findings of this paper are that: (i) international comparisons of government debt should exclude pension liabilities until more data are available from more countries; (ii) comparisons of government debt should be conducted separately for implicit and explicit liabilities as well as for funded and unfunded pension liabilities; (iii) further cooperation is required between the national accounts, actuary and public sector / business accounting communities to enable methodological consistency in the estimation of pension liabilities; and (iv) comparisons of government debt should not rely on one indicator but instead utilise a wide array of statistics in order to provide a more relevant and complete picture of government finances both within and across countries.
A new and novel approach to controlling regulatory costs is the concept of the regulatory budget. This concept would require that governments account for regulatory expenditures in a similar way to fiscal expenditures. This article argues that there are analogies between fiscal and regulatory budgets as they both divert resources from the private sector, albeit by different policy instruments. Given that budgeting is universally used to manage fiscal resources, the article outlines the pros and cons of developing regulatory budgets to manage regulatory resources. JEL classification: H300, H610.
A well-functioning public expenditure management system is considered a critical pillar of government efficiency. This article discusses PEM systems in developing countries using an analytical framework based on principal-agent theory. This simple model can be applied to various PEM systems and allows for comparisons between institutional settings. To illustrate this, the authors analyse the benefits derived from the use by the ministry of finance of ex post audits and ex ante controls, and assess their value in terms of their ability to deter cheating. The authors derive a set of possible “control regimes” which can be used by the ministry of finance.
New restrictions on short-selling sovereign debt need to be supported by concrete evidence that links systematically unrestricted short-selling activities to fraud, abuse or market manipulation. OECD debt managers noted that there is plenty of empirical evidence on the benefits of short selling, including more liquidity, pricing efficiency and better allocated risk. However, solid evidence in the form of empirical data on market instability unambiguously caused by unrestricted short-selling activities (to be counted as ‘costs’) seems to be lacking. Debt managers also noted that the reporting requirements will be costly from a purely administrative point of view. A ban on uncovered short selling transactions of sovereign debt would make risk management more difficult and expensive, with detrimental effects on market efficiency, liquidity and funding costs for sovereigns. Moreover, it is unlikely that such bans would have a stabilising effect in government securities markets during a crisis. Rather than containing the crisis, a ban on short selling of government debt is likely to worsen the situation. The paper concludes that OECD debt managers have a range of tested tools at their disposal for dealing with temporary or chronic dysfunctional measures in sovereign debt markets, ranging from ‘quantity measures’, such as openings, to ‘pricing measures’ such as dynamic fails charges. JEL Classification: E44, G01, G21, G28, E61, H21. Keywords: financial regulation, short-selling, restrictions on short-selling, debt management, risk management, sovereign debt.
To what extent can public deficits increase without putting fiscal sustainability at risk, given the specific current macroeconomic situation of protracted low growth and low interest rates, combined with relatively high government debt levels? The answer depends on many factors, such as the state of the economy, the fiscal track record and projections of population ageing and their effect on government spending.
This paper makes use of three different approaches to better assess fiscal space, which can be defined in a broad manner as the extent to which public debt can increase. These approaches converge to a conclusion that there is fiscal space in most of the large advanced economies. There is also evidence that fiscal space may have risen in most OECD countries since 2014, mainly driven by the decrease in interest rates. Reforms to health and pension programmes would help to create additional fiscal space.
This paper provides a review of the literature relating to empirical studies of the acreage and/or production response to the direct payments made to US farmers of wheat, feed grains, cotton and rice under the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996 and related payments made under additional legislation during the period 1999-2002.
Societal progress is about improvements in the well-being of people and households. Assessing such progress requires looking at the diverse and multidimensional experiences and living conditions of people. Measuring well-being and progress is a key priority that the OECD is pursuing through its Better Life Initiative and the How’s Life report series that has been published bi-annually since 2011. In addition, the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have created a strong need for better data on multi-dimensional outcomes. However, no statistical framework exists linking conceptual frameworks of well-being with specific measurement instruments and outputs, and a lack of harmonised data suitable for international comparisons remains a key limitation to monitoring progress across countries. This review makes a first step towards developing a system of well-being statistics. A data source that has been underutilised in assessing the multidimensionality of human well-being and the joint distribution of outcomes are General Social Surveys, which are run by the majority of national statistical agencies as part of their regular survey programme. Using the OECD well-being framework, this review systematically considers the outcome domains of How’s Life?, taking stock of how each domain is being measured through General Social Surveys conducted in OECD countries and could be drawn upon in comparative analyses of well-being such as How’s Life?. The paper highlights inconsistencies between General Social Surveys across countries, and makes recommendations towards harmonization.