This Survey is published on the responsibility of the Economic and Development Review Committee of the OECD, which is charged with the examination of the economic situation of member countries.

Poland recovered quickly from the COVID-19 pandemic, but economic growth is stalling following Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Inflation has soared against the backdrop of high global energy and food prices and domestic labour market pressures (Figure 1). While Poland’s energy supply remains reliant on coal and use of gas is limited, imports of both Russian coal and gas have been replaced and overall trade links with Russia and Belarus are relatively small. Inflation has been rising in the course of 2022 largely driven by higher energy prices, but also reflecting domestic factors, with consumer price inflation up 17.2% in January.

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s large-scale war of aggression against Ukraine, Poland was one of the fastest growing economies in Europe, expanding on average at 3.7% per annum over the 2010s. This strong convergence was based on sound macroeconomic policies that included inflation targeting, a flexible exchange rate and a solid fiscal framework. The pandemic hit Poland hard, but the economy recovered quickly thanks to effective policy support. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, more than 1 million refugees fleeing the war are living in Poland. Both the government and the population have undertaken considerable efforts to receive them. At the same time, global energy prices have soared, and activity, confidence and investment have declined.

Increasing digitalisation can further boost Poland’s productivity but successful digitalisation requires governments to take a comprehensive policy approach. Adoption of digital technologies is relatively low among firms, particularly SMEs. Expanded consultancy and technical support would help, as would accelerating the deployment of 5G networks. Although ICT innovation has been growing, it is relatively low and should be supported further. Skills are essential to ensuring an inclusive digital transition. Digital skills are particularly low among older adults. There are shortages of ICT specialists. Managerial skills, key to implementing digitalisation in firms, could also be higher. Skills gaps should be addressed by encouraging more students, especially women, to study ICT. Schools need to be better equipped with technology and links between education institutions and industry should be stronger. Effective implementation of the new migration programmes could raise the supply of ICT specialists. Moreover, there is a need to expand training and to make further education more practical and flexible to encourage lifelong learning. The government has been rapidly digitalising, which can facilitate the digital transition in the wider economy. It should continue to do so, and to enhance cybersecurity.