OECD Economic Surveys: Poland 2023
Poland has successfully managed a large inflow of refugees from Ukraine. The impact of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is overshadowing the outlook and economic growth is expected to slow to 0.9% this year before it recovers to 2.4% in 2024. Both monetary and fiscal policies should ensure that higher inflation does not become entrenched. Fiscal policy continues to support the economy in managing higher energy prices. Long term fiscal pressures need to be addressed, for instance by broadening the revenue base, improving spending efficiency and raising retirement age.
Digitalisation can help unleash the entrepreneurial potential of Polish businesses at home and in global markets but requires adequate skills. This requires the government to take a comprehensive approach across several policy areas, such as adult education, life-long learning and training for SMEs.
Poland has made progress in transitioning to net zero emissions by 2050, but the rate of decarbonisation needs to accelerate significantly. Setting out a clear long-term path for carbon prices would provide more clarity to households and businesses. A just energy transition requires supporting the most affected workers and regions.
SPECIAL FEATURE: DIGITALISING THE POLISH ECONOMY
Key policy insights
Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s large-scale war of aggression against Ukraine, Poland was one of the fastest growing economies in Europe, expanding on average at 3.7% per annum over the 2010s. This strong convergence was based on sound macroeconomic policies that included inflation targeting, a flexible exchange rate and a solid fiscal framework. The pandemic hit Poland hard, but the economy recovered quickly thanks to effective policy support. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, more than 1 million refugees fleeing the war are living in Poland. Both the government and the population have undertaken considerable efforts to receive them. At the same time, global energy prices have soared, and activity, confidence and investment have declined.
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