The economy is in recession against the background of internal and external imbalances. Uncertainty about future policy priorities has triggered capital outflows and a strong currency depreciation. The resulting liquidity challenges have led to a re-profiling of short-term debt and the reinstatement of currency controls. Recent volatility is weighing on growth and increasing unemployment.

Economic growth is projected to firm to about 2¼ per cent in 2020-21. While weaker trading partner growth and a downturn in domestic dwelling investment will weigh on economic conditions, recent household tax cuts and monetary policy easing should provide some support to activity. Subdued output growth and lingering uncertainty will weaken the recent strong labour market conditions.

Economic growth is projected to edge down over the 2020-21 period as the global slowdown and trade tensions weaken export growth and business investment. Employment will continue to increase and a tight labour market will support income growth. Domestic demand will be the key driver of growth. Inflation will remain subdued.

Economic growth is projected to moderate to around 1% in 2020-21. External headwinds will weigh on exports and business investment, despite supportive financing conditions. Private consumption will be more resilient on the back of past tax cuts and wage growth that will increase household disposable income. The job market is set to remain tight, with the unemployment rate at 5.4% at the end of 2021.

The economy is recovering gradually. A pension reform has been approved, and better prospects for progress on structural reform are lifting confidence and supporting investment, which is also buoyed by easier financial conditions. Low inflation and easier withdrawal of funds in individual unemployment insurance accounts will underpin stronger consumption. On the assumption that the reform agenda continues to advance, growth is projected to gain momentum in 2020. However, high unemployment is falling only slowly, and newly created jobs are of low quality, including many informal jobs.

Economic growth has been robust, but is projected to weaken somewhat in 2020 and 2021. Exports have been hit by slowing demand from key trading partners. Higher growth of private consumption and investment compared to exports is expected going forward. Private consumption – the most important driver of growth – is set to continue to expand due to rising real wages.

The economy will go through a period of subdued growth. A slowdown in external trade and ongoing trade policy uncertainty are weakening exports and damping business investment. The labour market has been strong, supporting incomes, but employment growth will slow. The unemployment rate will stop falling, but remain at a low level.

Economic growth is projected to strengthen gradually in the coming years, but remain weaker than previously expected due to the recent social events and persistent external headwinds. Supportive financing conditions and a tax reform in 2020 will sustain investment. Solid private consumption is set to be supported by low real interest rates and rising wages. Stronger growth and sustained immigration will boost employment. The current account deficit will remain stable.

Economic growth is projected to decline to 5.5% in 2021 as the economy continues to rebalance and trade tensions remain high. In 2019, frontloading of exports has helped to support activity, but increased tariffs will constrain growth going forward. Imports will slow further as demand for imported inputs eases, resulting in an increase in the current account surplus. Overall investment growth is no longer slowing thanks to government infrastructure projects and still robust real estate investment, although manufacturing investment growth is weak. Private consumption will grow steadily on the back of relatively strong disposable income gains. Inflation is easing, notwithstanding soaring prices of some consumption goods.

Economic growth is projected to remain robust in the coming two years, despite external headwinds. Investment will be a key driver of growth, aided by tax reforms and ambitious infrastructure projects. Low interest rates will support consumption, while unemployment will start falling. High inequality and informality will remain major policy challenges.

Economic growth is projected to be around 2¼ per cent in 2020-21, underpinned by gradually improving domestic demand, tourism and exports of business services. Declining inflation will gradually support consumption. Investment has been weak, but will benefit from lower interest rates. Informality and inequality remain high, hampering productivity.

Economic growth is projected to ease to 2–2¼ per cent in 2020-21. Household consumption and government spending will drive growth. Workers will still benefit from high wage growth, while unemployment will remain low. However, the external sector will limit growth as economic activity in the main trading partners is slowing, which will also lead to declining investment growth.

The economy is projected to grow at a moderate pace of around 1½ per cent in 2020 and 2021. Strong exports will slow and weigh on growth as demand from trading partners weaken. However, robust wage growth, continued job creation and negative interest rates will boost household disposable incomes and bolster private consumption. Inflation is set to rise gradually.

Growth is projected to slow from 3.2% in 2019 to 2.2% in 2020 and 2021, as exports are hit by weak global demand. Consumption is projected to hold up despite slowing real wage growth, as household finances are strong after years of increasing real wages and employment. Buoyant investment, notably in housing, will fall back to moderate levels. Inflation will stabilise somewhat above 2% as the economy cools.

Growth is projected to remain subdued, with little prospects of a recovery over the coming two years. Modest growth in external demand, global trade tensions and policy uncertainty will limit the pick-up in exports and business investment. Household saving is expected to continue to rise, further weakening the prospects for demand growth. Inflation will remain low.

The expansion is projected to continue to lose momentum, with GDP growth edging down to around 1%. Exports are set to weaken, mainly reflecting a deteriorating global environment, and housing investment will slow from recent high rates. Despite a sharp fall in job creation, unemployment should remain unchanged as labour force growth stalls.

Growth will remain moderate at 1.2% in 2020-21, driven by domestic demand. Resilient job creation, notably for jobs with permanent contracts, tax cuts and the impact of the social emergency measures will raise household disposable income and consumption. Supportive financing conditions and high business profit margins will damp the slowdown in investment, despite weak and uncertain global economic conditions. The unemployment rate will decline slowly towards 8.1% at the end of 2021, while core inflation and wages will strengthen only slightly.

The export-dependent economy has taken a substantial hit from the stagnation of global trade, with declines in export orders and industrial production. After expanding by an estimated 0.6% in 2019, GDP is projected to grow only by 0.4% in 2020 and 0.9% in 2021. Continuing trade disputes and Brexit uncertainty are weighing on business confidence and investment. Private consumption and construction are expected to stay resilient, but weaknesses in manufacturing will spill over to the rest of the economy. However, in light of the shortage of skilled labour and programmes to support flexibility in working hours, large deteriorations in the labour market are not expected.

GDP is projected to expand by about 2% in 2020‑21. Employment and real wage gains will support consumption, while improving financing conditions and confidence will boost business investment. Sluggish external demand will moderate export growth. This, and the gradual rise in imports, will mitigate improvements in the current account balance.

The strong recovery is projected to slow in line with external demand to slightly above 3% in the next two years. Private consumption will continue to drive growth on the back of strong gains in real incomes. Public investment will decelerate along with declining disbursements from EU structural funds. Capacity constraints will bolster business investment and imports. The tightening labour market continues to push up wage and price inflation.

The economy will recover amid a pick-up of foreign tourism and seafood exports. Consumption will remain moderate on the back of contained wage growth and rising social benefits. Business investment will slowly recover as interest rates decline. Unemployment will rise, although in a few high‑skill sectors labour shortages will become more apparent. Inflationary pressures will ease as wage drift has weakened and the krona has stabilised.

Economic growth is projected to recover to just under 6½ per cent in FY 2021 as election‑related uncertainties fade and monetary and fiscal policies have become accommodative. The new income‑support scheme for farmers and a good monsoon are supporting private consumption. The cut in corporate income tax will support corporate investment. Inflation and the current account deficit will remain moderate given the relatively large spare capacity in the economy and low oil prices. Job creation remains a challenge.

Steady growth has lifted GDP per capita by around 4% annually for several years. During 2020‑21, domestic demand is projected to continue supporting growth despite external headwinds. Rising household incomes and low inflation will underpin household spending. Investment growth will edge up again, partly reflecting infrastructure projects. Weaker trade growth globally is weighing on exports in the near term.

On the assumption of a “smooth” Brexit, GDP growth in Ireland is projected to remain robust, though moderating. Abstracting from multinationals’ volatile activities, underlying domestic demand will remain resilient, supported by strong construction investment and despite the toll taken by slower trade partner growth and high external uncertainty on business sentiment. The labour market will tighten, and the associated wage pressures will push up inflation.

The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.

GDP growth is projected to resume very gradually. Global trade uncertainty and softer external demand will continue to weigh on export growth and business investment. Consumption will gradually pick up, as households’ disposable incomes keep rising and as confidence stabilises. Fiscal policy is projected to support activity through reduced tax burdens and social security charges, as well as higher public investment and tax incentives for business investment.

The economy is estimated to have expanded by 1% in 2019, but growth is projected to ease somewhat in 2020‑21. The temporary effect of the consumption tax increase on GDP growth will be mitigated by fiscal measures and the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo. With wage and investment growth sustained by labour and capacity shortages, GDP growth is set to remain close to potential following the rollback of the temporary fiscal measures in 2021. Headline inflation is projected to edge up to 1½ per cent by 2021, sustained by continued wage and economic growth.

Economic growth will remain subdued, as the global slowdown and trade tensions hold back exports, while high uncertainty weighs on investment. Job creation in the public sector will mitigate the impacts of sluggish output growth on employment. A gradual recovery in global demand for semi-conductors and expansionary fiscal policy will support the economy.

Economic growth slowed in the first half of 2019 and is projected to remain moderate. Weak world trade will be a drag on growth, while investment growth will ease to a more sustainable pace following an exceptional surge in the disbursement of EU funds. Private consumption will continue to play a key role in maintaining growth, supported by the strong labour market. Inflation will gradually decrease towards 2%.

Economic growth is projected to ease amid weak export market conditions and capacity constraints. A slower increase in EU fund disbursements will also bear on investment. Strong wage growth will support consumption and reduce income inequalities, but put pressure on service prices and potentially on competitiveness.

Growth is projected to ease to 2.8% in 2020 and to 2.3% in 2021, amid subdued investment and persistent weakness in the euro area, which will hamper further export dynamism. Solid private consumption growth will underpin domestic demand. The buoyant labour market will keep creating jobs, though at a decelerating pace and benefitting primarily cross-border workers. Consequently, the unemployment rate is projected to decline only slightly.

Growth will pick up gradually, as robust remittances, increases in minimum wages and declining inflation will boost consumption. Investment has been weak but will gradually strengthen on the back of lower interest rates. Export growth will decline owing to less favourable global conditions, especially in the United States. Informality remains widespread and inequalities across regions are high.

After declining in 2019 due to the slowing of world trade, economic growth in 2020 is projected to be boosted by a significant fiscal stimulus package. The labour market will remain strong, with a low unemployment rate and solid wage growth.

Economic growth is projected to remain around 2½ per cent in 2020-21. Exports are set to decelerate and consumption will lose momentum, reflecting diminishing net migration inflows and lower housing wealth gains. On the other hand, business investment is expected to strengthen in response to rising labour costs and a falling cost of capital, thereby easing tight capacity constraints.

Mainland GDP growth has been robust, but will slow as capacity constraints bind further and export and investment growth diminish. Price pressures will be muted and employment growth will begin to ease.

Economic growth will remain robust, although decreasing to 3.8% in 2020 and 3% in 2021. Both private and public investment will decelerate, and low world trade growth will limit exports. Private consumption growth will decline gradually as the impact of new social transfers and tax cuts fade. Decreasing employment gains and the steady decline of the labour force will lead to a progressive reduction in the unemployment rate.

Economic growth is projected to edge down to 1.7% by 2021. Consumption growth will soften due to lower wage growth. Export growth will be sustained by competitiveness gains despite challenging external conditions. The absorption of EU structural funds will sustain investment. Inflation is expected to remain low. Unemployment is projected to decline slightly.

After the strong expansion in recent years, growth is projected to slow to 3.2% in 2020 and then increase to 3.7% in 2021. While wages will return to single‑digit growth, private consumption is expected to remain robust, sustained by significant increases in public pensions. The trade deficit will increase further due to weak foreign demand and lower price competitiveness. Investment growth will remain at a moderate pace, supported by higher absorption of EU funds.

Economic growth is projected to slow to around 2½ per cent in 2020‑21, as weaker external demand will weigh on export growth. Domestic demand will remain relatively strong, notably due to private consumption, which will be held up by a resilient labour market with historically low unemployment. Inflation will remain above 2% as the economy operates above its normal capacity.

Economic growth is projected to remain at around 3% until 2021. Private consumption will continue to be the main driver of growth, sustained by higher wages and solid employment gains. Uncertainty about the external environment will slow the pace of new business investment. Improvements in export performance will slow with rising labour unit costs. The import content of exports is rising, as foreign demand for goods with higher domestic value added weakens. Domestic demand is increasingly satisfied through imports, owing to tightening capacity constraints.

Economic growth remains weak and is projected to pick up to only 1¼ per cent in 2020‑21. Confidence is low on the back of continuing policy uncertainty, which hampers investment. Unemployment will remain high, weighing on private consumption. Trade is currently held down by global trade tensions, but export growth should pick up in line with the recovery of world trade. Inflation will increase moderately in 2020 due to rising electricity, food and fuel prices.

The moderation in economic growth in 2019 is projected to continue in 2020 and 2021. Domestic demand will remain the main driver of growth, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years, with moderating employment growth weighing on consumption and heightened uncertainty hindering investment. Lower export market growth will be a drag on exports. Inflation will remain subdued, with continued slack in the economy.

The long expansion is losing momentum. Export growth will decline sharply, reflecting the global slowdown. Heightened uncertainty will continue to weigh on business investment, while residential investment will bottom out. Households will continue to spend with caution, as unemployment is rising and wage gains remain moderate. Inflation will continue to undershoot the 2% target.

After decelerating during 2019, economic growth is projected to pick up in 2020-21. Private consumption will remain resilient, supported by low unemployment. A gloomy global environment will weigh on investment and trade, but the current account surplus will remain large. International sporting events will boost service exports and thus growth in 2020. Inflation will be subdued following the recent currency appreciation but inch up in 2021.

Growth has continued to pick up over recent months. Substantial government stimulus is lifting domestic demand more vigorously than previously anticipated and currency depreciation is supporting exports. Yet, weak external trade demand, geopolitical uncertainties and impaired private balance sheets are projected to keep GDP growth at around 3%, well below potential growth which itself has weakened and which may decline further due to increased policy-related distortions in the economy. Investor confidence remains fragile and investment has declined sharply.

The economic outlook is unusually uncertain given the risks around exit from the European Union. Assuming there is a smooth transition ending after 2021, activity is expected to grow at around 1% in the next two years. Brexit-related uncertainty will keep holding back investment until there is clarity about future trading arrangements. Weak global economic prospects will slow the recovery in exports. Inflation is projected to slow to below 2%.

The current economic expansion has become the longest on record but economic growth is now slowing, partly due to increased tariffs on imported goods and high trade tensions. The labour market has created many new jobs and unemployment has fallen to historically very low rates. Rising real wages and high asset prices are supporting average household income and consumption growth. On the other hand, in addition to intense trade tensions and uncertainty, the combined effects of a waning fiscal impulse, weaker growth in trading partners, and demographic pressures are weighing on confidence and activity.