A combination of massive fiscal and monetary tightening will keep the economy in recession during 2018 and 2019. Private consumption and investment will remain depressed due to lower real incomes and high interest rates, and unemployment will rise. However, a better harvest and a lower real exchange rate will support stronger exports.

Robust economic growth is set to continue. New capacity coming on stream in the resource sector will support exports and business investment will pick up. Growth of wages and prices will rise gradually, while the unemployment rate will edge lower. Output growth will moderate slightly in 2020 as capacity constraints tighten, export‑market growth slows and households become less willing to draw down savings to fuel consumption.

Economic growth is projected to remain solid, but will slow in 2019 and 2020. A deterioration in the external environment will damp export and investment growth. Solid employment growth is fostering wage and private consumption growth. Inflation remains moderate.

Economic growth slowed in 2018 and is projected to remain at around 1½ per cent in 2019 and 2020. Domestic demand will be the main driver of growth. Government investment will be strong in 2020, and private investment will also support growth in the coming two years. Underlying price inflation will pick up gradually due to increasing wage growth in a tight labour market.

Growth will gain momentum during 2019 and 2020 as private consumption, supported by improvements in the labour market, will increase. Recovering credit and greater policy certainty as a new administration takes office will buttress the recovery. Political uncertainty around the implementation of reforms remains significant and could derail the recovery, but if uncertainty fades and reforms advance as assumed, investment will become stronger.

Growth is on course to moderate to slightly below 2% by 2020, with consumption slowing in response to smaller increases in housing wealth, and employment and exports moderating as US growth declines. Unemployment is projected to remain near record lows and inflation to edge up to slightly over 2%.

Growth is projected to remain strong over the next two years. With an uncertain external environment, solid domestic demand will underpin growth, aided by a stable inflation environment, public infrastructure projects and a tax reform. Inequality, though decreasing, remains high as informality and unemployment remain high and social transfers low.

After having held up well into 2018, growth has recently weakened and is projected to decline in 2019‑20. Signs of slowdown include the weakening of industrial production, profits and revenues. Foreign trade flows will lose some momentum following the escalation of trade tensions. The slowdown of activity also reflects the cutback of infrastructure investment, as local government debt has been subject to greater scrutiny, though it could rebound following the recent acceleration of debt issuance and announcement of new projects.

Growth is projected to pick up as infrastructure projects, lower corporate taxes and higher oil prices will boost investment. Improving confidence and financing conditions will support consumption. As growth gains traction, unemployment will edge down. Social indicators are improving but informality and inequality remain high.

Growth is projected to recover to around 3¼ per cent in 2020 and be broad-based, underpinned by both domestic and external demand. However, uncertainty, particularly surrounding the planned fiscal reforms, is weighing on growth in the near term. The projections are based on the assumption that the fiscal reforms will be implemented from 2019, with modest fiscal tightening holding back growth in 2019 and 2020.

Economic growth is projected to remain strong in 2019 and 2020, although it will slow. Increasing wages and low unemployment will keep household consumption growth high. Private investment will stay robust, in particular in housing and manufacturing. Export growth will continue to be solid. However, labour shortages will remain a bottleneck to higher economic growth.

The broad-based economic expansion is projected to continue in 2019 and moderate in 2020. Strong real income growth and continued employment gains will support private consumption. Labour shortages are expected to intensify and result in faster wage growth and a pick-up in inflation. Strong domestic demand will bolster imports and help to reduce the very large current account surplus.

Economic growth is projected to reach 3.5% in 2019, before slowing to 2.3% in 2020 in line with weakening external demand. Increasing real wages will support robust private consumption growth. Investment is set to pick up, supported by strong business confidence and the recovering housing market. Inflation will remain at a high level, sustained by further tightening of the labour market.

Economic growth is set to moderate, to just above 1½ per cent in 2020. Accommodative monetary policy and some fiscal easing will support domestic demand, in particular private consumption, and employment. Investment will remain reasonably strong, reflecting continued favourable financing conditions and a need to expand capacity. Inflation is projected to rise gradually, as stronger wage growth and dissipating slack translate into sustained increases in core inflation.

Output growth is projected to remain healthy, albeit moderating after the vigorous 2016-18 upturn. Exports will continue to benefit from expanding external demand and regained competitiveness. Private consumption will be supported by rising wages and improved employment. Inflation will pick up gradually as the economy nears full capacity.

Economic growth is projected to continue at a pace of around 1½ per cent in 2019 and 2020. Still supportive financing conditions and business tax cuts will boost business investment, despite slowing external demand. Lower labour taxes, a more flexible labour market and improved training opportunities will help job creation, notably for low-skilled workers, supporting household consumption. Core inflation will strengthen, underpinned by the firming of the economy and a pick-up in wages.

Economic growth is projected to decline but remain solid, backed by strong job creation and a fiscal stimulus. Trade-related uncertainties and moderating world demand will weigh on exports. Private consumption will accelerate due to strong wage growth and fiscal measures that increase household disposable income. Low interest rates, high capacity utilisation and growing housing demand will support residential and business investment. The current account surplus will fall as stronger domestic demand fuels imports.

GDP growth is projected to edge up to 2.2% in 2019, before moderating slightly in 2020. The large contribution of exports to growth will decline, but the recovery of household consumption and investment will gain traction with rising confidence. Continued implementation of the government’s reform programme will support the recovery. Unemployment, while still high, will continue to fall.

The strong economic expansion is projected to slow gradually in the next two years. Private consumption will be supported by real-wage gains and record-high employment, while investment will be boosted by housing construction and corporate activity, as well as disbursements of EU structural funds, albeit at a slower rate. Tight labour market conditions will raise inflation, projected to reach 4% in 2019. As capacity constraints bite, demand is increasingly met by imports, and growth will gradually lose momentum.

Growth is projected to slow towards more sustainable rates. Consumption growth will ease as employment and wages decelerate. Exports of goods and services, especially tourism, will weaken after a strong 2018, while imports will decline following slowing internal demand. The residential housing boom will ease and the growth of private investment will weaken. The unemployment rate remains low, at around 3%.

Economic growth will slow somewhat but remain robust, at close to 7½ per cent in 2019 and 2020. Higher oil prices and the rupee depreciation are putting pressure on demand, inflation, the current account and public finances. However, business investment and exports will be strong, as past structural reforms – including the new Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, smoother implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), better roads and electricity and bank recapitalisation – are paying off.

Economic growth is projected to remain above 5% in 2019-20. Rising incomes will lift private consumption. Tighter financial conditions will weigh on firms’ investment but ongoing infrastructure investment will provide support. Slower growth in trading partners will be a drag on exports, but improvements in regulations and connectivity, along with greater price competitiveness from currency depreciation, should support gains in market share. Inflation is set to remain relatively subdued notwithstanding the rupiah depreciation and higher fuel prices. Higher import prices have widened the current account deficit.

Economic activity in Ireland is projected to remain robust, but to ease gradually. Abstracting from volatile activities of multinational enterprises (MNEs), underlying domestic demand will remain strong, underpinned by solid employment growth and consumption. As the economy approaches full employment, job growth will moderate while wage pressures will be significant, feeding into higher inflation. Property prices will remain very high, spurring strong construction investment.

Strong growth is projected to continue, but to cool slightly through 2020. Expansionary fiscal policy and low interest rates will boost domestic demand. The current account will nevertheless remain in small surplus. Inflation will rise towards the centre of the Bank of Israel’s target range.

GDP growth is projected to be 0.9% in 2019 and 2020. Private consumption will moderate, as lower employment growth and rising consumer price inflation temper real household disposable income gains and offset the positive effect of expansionary fiscal policy. Business investment will slow as domestic and external demand growth weakens. With weak domestic demand, the current account surplus will remain around 2.5% of GDP.

Economic growth is projected to remain around 1% in 2018-19, as record-high corporate profits and labour shortages drive business investment. In addition, stronger wage gains will support a pick-up in private consumption in 2019. Although the October 2019 consumption tax hike will temporarily reduce demand, growth is projected to resume in early 2020, buoyed by additional government spending and the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo. Sustained growth, combined with higher oil prices, is expected to boost inflation to 1½ per cent (excluding the impact of the consumption tax hike) in 2020.

Economic growth is projected to remain close to 3% through 2020, as fiscal stimulus offsets sluggish employment growth, which reflects double-digit hikes in the minimum wage in 2018-19 and restructuring in the manufacturing sector. Measures to stabilise the housing market have led to a decline in construction orders for residential property. Inflation is expected to edge up from 1½ per cent toward the 2% target, while the current account surplus will remain above 5% of GDP.

Growth is strong and broad-based, but is projected to moderate to under 3½ per cent by 2020. Private consumption will be supported by a persistently strong labour market. Following a slump, investment rebounded strongly in 2017-18, as investors have drawn on EU structural funds, but growth in capital spending will ease to more sustainable levels in the coming two years.

GDP growth is projected to ease gradually as external demand momentum weakens and labour supply constraints bite. Investment will remain robust, albeit below current rates, supported by high capacity utilisation and the implementation of EU-funded projects. Strong wage growth, especially in the service sector, will support consumption but also put pressure on inflation. Informality contributes to inequalities.

Growth is strong and projected to stay robust in 2019 and 2020. Domestic demand will support economic activity, with private consumption boosted by a buoyant labour market and lasting effects of tax reform. Growth momentum in the euro area will support solid exports of financial and non-financial services. Continued job creation will primarily benefit cross-border workers, but also help to reduce the unemployment rate to just above 5%.

Growth is projected to pick up to 2¾ per cent by 2020. Low unemployment, strong remittances and the recovery of real wages will support household consumption. Investment, which has been persistently low, will strengthen on the back of announced public investment plans and increased confidence associated with the US‑Mexico‑Canada trade agreement. Export growth will decline owing to less favourable global conditions, especially in the United States. Inflation has been pushed up by rising energy prices, but expectations and core inflation remain anchored and within the central bank’s target band. Informality is declining slowly but remains elevated, contributing to persistently high inequalities and low productivity.

GDP growth is projected to moderate from around 2¾ per cent in 2018 to just above 2% by 2020, reflecting slowing private consumption and investment. Wage growth and inflation will increase steadily as a result of the tight labour market. The large current account surplus is projected to increase further.

Economic growth is projected to edge down to 2.6% by 2020, mainly reflecting slowing private consumption as the boost from increased financial support for families passes, net immigration diminishes and housing wealth gains subside. Export growth is also set to decline once the current rebound from a dry spell is over. Inflation is projected to increase to slightly over 2% in 2019 and 2020, buoyed by higher import prices and domestic wage growth.

Mainland output growth will moderate over the next two years as the boost from recent oil price increases lessens, overall capacity constraints tighten, and unemployment falls further. Housing construction will remain subdued. Consumer price and wage inflation will increase gradually.

Economic growth is projected to remain solid, but ease gradually as labour resources become scarcer and production costs rise. Domestic demand will continue to drive growth: consumption will be supported by a tight labour market and investment by the disbursements of EU structural funds and low real interest rates. Intensifying labour shortages will boost wage growth and inflation.

GDP growth is projected to remain broadly stable at around 2% per year in 2019 and 2020. Domestic demand and further export gains will support economic activity. In particular, consumption growth will remain solid as the unemployment rate falls further. Rising labour costs will prompt an increase in inflation.

Growth is projected to remain robust, as private consumption will benefit from rising wages, household credit and employment, the latter following a bold pension reform. Large infrastructure projects will boost both public and private investment. The VAT increase in early 2019 will dent growth temporarily as disposable incomes fall. Export growth will decline as foreign demand weakens, while imports will rebound in 2020. A weaker rouble and the VAT increase will raise inflation temporarily above the 4% target. Unemployment will increase as employment demand will only partly match higher labour supply following the rise of the retirement age.

Robust growth is projected to continue. Significant new capacity in the automotive sector will boost export performance. Labour market buoyancy and solid investment growth, underpinned by favourable financial conditions and increased disbursements of EU funds, will contribute to strong domestic demand. Wage growth will increase and consumer price inflation will reach 3% as the labour market tightens and pressures on production capacity build up.

Economic growth, which moderated in 2018, is projected to slow significantly in 2019 and 2020, as capacity limits become an increasing constraint on output and as investment growth eases towards more sustainable levels. Export-market gains will decelerate as higher wages take their toll on the competitiveness of exporters.

Economic growth is projected to pick up slowly in 2019-20, driven by exports. Private consumption will also expand as wages increase moderately. Unemployment will remain high, however, weighing on demand and confidence. Investment is set to recover as policy uncertainty is assumed to ease gradually. High oil prices and the weak currency will drive inflation to the upper part of the 3-6% target range.

Economic growth has been strong but is projected to moderate in 2019 and 2020. Even so, the unemployment rate will continue to decline, but remain high. Domestic demand, supported by low interest rates and strong employment growth, will remain the main driver of growth.

Strong exports, reflecting both growth among Sweden’s main trading partners and a weaker krona, along with solid domestic demand, will continue to support the expansion. Housing investment will keep declining, following earlier house price falls. Employment creation will slow, with labour shortages in a number of occupations. The unemployment rate will level off as difficult-to-hire workers make up a rising proportion of jobseekers.

GDP growth has been buoyant in recent quarters and is projected to be about 1½ per cent over the next two years. Domestic demand will gain strength, supported by household consumption. However, the boost to exports from the earlier exchange rate depreciation and one-off events will fade. The large current account surplus will narrow slightly. Inflation will pick up gradually but remain moderate.

Following several years of strong growth and significant external borrowing, the exchange rate has depreciated steadily since mid-2017. Intensified market pressures in August 2018 led to a further depreciation of around 30%, followed by a partial recovery thereafter. The economy is projected to contract in 2019 as a sharp fall in domestic demand from the second half of 2018 will be offset only partially by an increase in exports. A gradual recovery in domestic confidence and demand is projected to help growth to recover in 2020.

Economic growth is projected to increase slightly in 2019 before slowing in 2020, on the assumption that there is a smooth exit from the European Union. Some Brexit‑related uncertainties will remain until there is clarity about future trading arrangements. An expansionary fiscal stance and a slow recovery in exports are expected to support growth, while the monetary stimulus will be gradually withdrawn. Inflation is projected to converge to 2% by the end of 2020.

Growth is projected to slow in the coming two years as macroeconomic policy becomes less supportive. While employment growth slows, consumption growth remains solid, supported by wage growth picking up as the labour market tightens further. Strong business investment in 2019 and 2020 is underpinned by the recent tax reform and supportive financial conditions. A weaker global outlook and already introduced trade measures weigh on activity.

This annex contains data on key economic series which provide a background to the recent economic developments in the global economy described in the main body of this report. Data for 2018, 2019 and 2020 are OECD estimates and projections. Data in some of the tables have been adjusted to conform to internationally agreed concepts and definitions in order to make them more comparable across countries, as well as consistent with historical data shown in other OECD publications. Regional aggregates are based on time-varying weights. For details on aggregation, see OECD Economic Outlook Sources and Methods.