Browse by: "2017"

Switzerland continues to provide its citizens with a high standard of living. The economy has shown considerable resilience, most recently to the exchange rate appreciation in 2015. Nevertheless, growth has been too slow to absorb spare capacity or raise income per capita meaningfully. Unconventional monetary policies have helped return inflation to positive territory, but pose other risks. Fiscal policy is sound, and the federal fiscal rule has helped lower public indebtedness but it implies that spending priorities must be funded from other areas. Labour productivity growth has been falling since the late-1990s to be one-third of the OECD average rate in the past decade. Swiss R&D and innovation are top-ranked but need to be more widespread. Frontier firms’ labour productivity has diverged from the rest. The Swiss education and training system is well regarded and has contributed to high employment rates. However, it is being increasingly challenged by the ever-growing demand for high-skilled workers along with the changing nature of work. Maintaining and raising living standards will require policies to restore productivity growth and ensure that the skills training and lifelong learning system is nimble.

SPECIAL FEATURES: BOOSTING PRODUCTIVITY; MEETING SKILLS NEEDS
 

Sweden’s economy has fared well in recent years thanks to strong macroeconomic, fiscal and financial fundamentals, as well as a competitive and diversified business sector. Output has been lifted by an expanding labour force, investment and lately a pick-up in productivity. Unemployment is receding, although it remains high for vulnerable groups, notably the foreign-born. While income inequality is relatively low, it has risen more rapidly than in any other OECD country since the 1990s. Capital gains boosted top incomes, while benefits increased more slowly than wages. High labour market entry thresholds, spatial segregation, and bottlenecks in migrant settlement reduce opportunities and social mobility. Sweden is one of the world’s most gender-equal countries, even though foreign-born women are lagging behind. Women have a high employment rate, outperform men in education and are well represented in government and parliament. However, gender wage differences persist: women are under-represented on private company boards, in senior management positions, in many well-paid and influential professions and among entrepreneurs. This Economic Survey of Sweden assesses the country’s recent macroeconomic performance and prospects, and offers recommendations to foster more inclusive growth. In particular, reforms to housing, wage subsidies and migrant settlement and integration would raise the incomes and opportunities of the disadvantaged. So would a more systematic approach to benefits uprating. Better shared parental leaves would raise gender equality further. Fostering women entrepreneurship and promoting entry of women in senior management is also crucial.

Special Features: Income inequality; Gender inequality

Spain is enjoying a robust recovery from a deep recession and a wide range of structural reforms has contributed to sustainable rises in living standards. Highly accommodative euro-area monetary policy, low oil prices and, more recently, expansionary fiscal policy have all supported domestic demand. Exports have been a particular bright spot, as Spain has resisted the slowdown in global export growth. However, raising well-being and GDP per capita, particularly via productivity increases, and making growth more inclusive remains a challenge. Spain has long suffered from very low productivity growth, which has restrained increases in living standards. Misallocation of capital towards low productivity firms and underinvestment in innovation have dragged down productivity, although more recently capital allocation has been improving. Policies to foster a better allocation of capital and higher productivity include reducing regulatory barriers in product markets that are holding back competition, encouraging higher investment in R&D and innovation and ensuring that capital goes to a wider set of innovative firms. Reducing entry barriers and improving framework conditions would also help to foster green investment. The unemployment rate is gradually falling down thanks to stronger growth, but it remains very high, particularly among the young and long-term unemployed. The high share of long-term unemployed risks loss of skills, disaffection and alienation. Poverty has also risen, mainly due to lack of quality jobs that provide enough hours of paid work to support decent incomes. Part of the answer is continued strong economic growth, but strengthening training and job placement and better minimum income support are crucial.

SPECIAL FEATURES: IMPROVING JOB QUALITY; INNOVATIVE BUSINESS INVESTMENT

Over the last two decades, South Africa has accomplished enormous social progress by bringing to millions of citizens access to key public services. Nevertheless, growth has trended down markedly recently due to constraints on the supply side. Low growth has led to the stagnation of GDP per capita, and persistent high unemployment and inequalities.

The economy faces many structural challenges while high inflation limits room for monetary policy support  and high public debt constrains public spending. South Africa needs structural reforms that would boost the potential of the economy, in particular, broadening competition, limiting the size and grip of state-owned enterprises on the economy, and improving the quality of the education system.

Greater regional integration could provide new opportunities for growth by expanding market size. South African firms are well placed to benefit from deeper integration. However, lowering tariffs and non-tariffs barriers on trade, developing regional infrastructure and harmonising regulations are needed to foster regional integration.
More entrepreneurs and thriving small businesses would contribute to inclusive growth and job creation. Barriers to entrepreneurship include bureaucratic procedures and licensing, which are also an ongoing burden on small firms. An education system that better equippes students with basic and entrepreneurial skills would grow the pipeline of entrepreneurs. A better evidence base is crucial for more effective financial and non-financial support programmes to boost start-up rates and small firms’ growth.

SPECIAL FEATURES: DEEPENING REGIONAL INTEGRATION; BOOSTING ENTREPRENEURSHIP

The economy is experiencing a strong recovery after a prolonged period of low growth following the international financial and domestic banking crises.  The current economic prosperity reflects a combination of recent structural reforms, business restructuring, supportive monetary conditions and improved export markets. A downside is that unemployment consists increasingly of low-skilled and older workers who are unable to fill emerging labour shortages. In addition, long-run growth prospects are hindered by a rapidly ageing population and low productivity growth, partly linked to product market issues.  The 2017 Survey makes key policy recommendations to secure fiscal sustainability through pension and health care reform. In addition, the Survey recommends measures to enhance economic growth by boosting investment incentives in human and physical capital. Such investments will improve the skills and adaptability of the Slovenian workforce and promote competitive firms, fostering faster productivity growth and higher living standards for all Slovenians by ensuring more inclusive growth.

SPECIAL FEATURES: ENHANCING SKILLS; COMPETITION POLICY AND REGULATION

Slovakia’s economy continues to perform extremely well both in terms of macroeconomic outcomes and public finances. Employment is rising, prices have been stable, and the external account is near balance. Poverty and income inequality are low, and the country’s environmental footprint has improved markedly. However, population ageing, projected to be one of the steepest in the OECD on the basis of the expected change in the old-age dependency ratio, will pose policy and social challenges in the decades ahead. They will be compounded by the persistent emigration of young, particularly educated people, as well as the weak integration of the numerous Roma. Other concerns are the work disincentives faced by women and high long-term unemployment. Widely different labour market outcomes between Bratislava and the eastern part of the country also contribute to large regional per capita GDP gaps and a dual functioning of the economy. The authorities have continued their reform process over the last few years to address these issues, which require improving public-sector efficiency. Making growth more inclusive for the Roma, women and the chronically unemployed will require further reforms in education, health care and the labour market, along with better infrastructure.

SPECIAL FEATURES: ENHANCING SKILLS; IMPROVING THE HEALTH-CARE SYSTEM

Portugal’s economy has gone through a gradual recovery from a deep recession. A wide-ranging structural reform agenda has supported the recovery and the ongoing reduction of imbalances built up in the past. Raising investment will underpin the ongoing rebalancing of the economy and a stronger export sector. Incentives for new capital investments could be strengthened by improvements in judicial efficiency, administrative reform, product market regulation reforms or lower labour costs. Removing non-performing loans from bank balance sheets would enhance banks’ ability to provide new credit to firms. Addressing bottlenecks in insolvency procedures and opening up new sources of financing would also boost private sector investment. Overcoming a legacy of a low skilled labour force is key for higher living standards. Despite remarkable progress, the education system could do more to raise skill levels and reduce the link between learning outcomes and socio-economic backgrounds. The high share of early school drop-outs and frequent use grade repetition could be reduced by shifting resources towards primary education and students at risk and improving teacher training and exposure to best practices. Unifying the current fragmented Vocational Education and Training (VET) system into one dual VET system, and strengthening monitoring and evaluation could raise its effectiveness to meet the labour market needs and ability to contribute to a more skilled society. Efforts need to continue to raise the skills levels of the low-qualified adult population.

SPECIAL FEATURES: RAISING INVESTMENT; RAISING SKILLS

New Zealand is enjoying strong economic growth, driven by booming tourism, high net immigration, solid construction activity and supportive monetary policy. The fiscal position is sound, with low public debt and a balanced budget. The major economic vulnerability emanates from high levels of household debt associated with rapid increases in house prices, which have reached high levels relative to fundamentals. Barriers to expanding housing supply are being reduced, and macro-prudential measures have been taken to contain financial stability risks, but further measures may be needed. While the short-term economic outlook is strong, there are longer-term challenges from low productivity growth, a changing labour market and some growing environmental pressures. Addressing these challenges would secure sustainable improvements in well-being for all New Zealanders.

SPECIAL FEATURES: IMPROVING PRODUCTIVITY; THE CHANGING LABOUR MARKET

Ambitious structural reforms and sound macroeconomic policies have ensured the resilience of the highly-open Mexican economy in the face of challenging global conditions. Mexico’s productivity growth has recently picked up in sectors that benefitted from structural reforms – energy, financial, and telecoms. Trade openness, foreign direct investment, integration into global value chains and innovation incentives have boosted exports, notably of autos. Yet other sectors lag behind, suffering from overly stringent local regulations, weak legal institutions, rooted informality, corruption and insufficient financial development. Moreover, growth has not been inclusive enough to achieve better living conditions for all Mexican families, many of whom live in poverty, and whose children’s opportunities to do better than their parents could be improved. Past policies have already begun to correct these trends, but more needs to be done. The 2017 Survey makes key policy recommendations that could help to boost productivity and make growth more inclusive.

SPECIAL FEATURES: INCLUSIVE GROWTH; PRODUCTIVITY

Luxembourg’s economic performance is robust thanks to its dynamic services sector, sound fiscal policies and openness to global talent. The pace of job creation is strong and benefits not only residents but also cross-border workers and immigrants. The large financial sector is well supervised, but to reduce reliance on the financial industry the government should further develop its long-term strategy focusing on new digital technologies and renewable energy.
Supplying the skills needed in these new sectors will require further improvements in the education system, with a focus on lifelong learning. Better alignment of skills with labour market needs would entail reorienting labour market policies from supporting job creating towards funding training programmes to facilitate the reallocation of labour. Luxembourg benefits from immigrants who play a successful role in the economy. Integration challenges remain, though, especially regarding people from non-EU countries, who suffer from high unemployment. As language proficiency is a key precondition for successful integration, public supply of language courses should be stepped up further. Education reforms seek to make schools more equitable, also for the children of immigrants, and equality between men and women is being promoted by easing access to childcare and making taxation more gender neutral.

SPECIAL FEATURES: BOOSTING SKILLS; IMPROVING THE INTEGRATION OF IMMIGRANTS

Latvia’s economy has grown robustly in recent years on the back of a strong track record in implementing structural reforms, despite a challenging international environment. Rising wages have supported household consumption. After a severe setback in 2008-09, catch-up with higher income OECD countries may have resumed. Government finances are solid and financial market confidence in Latvia is strong. Private sector indebtedness is now lower than in many OECD economies. Export performance, including diversification of products and destinations, is improving, but Latvia’s participation in global value chains is modest. Latvia’s exports still rely heavily on low value-added, natural resource intensive products, reflecting in part skills shortages and weak innovation. Unemployment remains high, although it has fallen. Many young Latvians emigrate. Informal economic activity is still widespread.
High long-term unemployment, weak social safety nets and high labour taxes for workers on low pay contribute to widespread poverty. Many low-income households are inadequately housed. High out-of-pocket payments limit access of low-income households to health services. Improving access to housing, health care, education and training would improve economic opportunities for low-income households and requires additional government spending.

SPECIAL FEATURES : MOVING UP THE GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN; ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE

Economic growth has picked up since Abenomics was launched in 2013, and so has job creation. However, Japan faces serious demographic headwinds, as its population is projected to decline by a quarter over 2015-50, with the share over age 65 rising from 26% to almost 40%. Firms already face labour shortages. Population ageing also puts upward pressure on government spending. Gross government debt, which has risen to 219% of GDP, the highest ever recorded in the OECD area, continues to rise. Labour productivity is about a quarter below the top half of OECD countries despite Japan's high levels of human capital, R&D and business investment. Slowing productivity growth has been accompanied by increased income inequality and relative poverty. Gender gaps in employment and wages are relatively large. This Economic Survey of Japan assesses the country’s recent macroeconomic performance and prospects, and offers recommendations to boost productivity and foster more inclusive growth. In particular, the expanding gap between leading and lagging firms should be narrowed by promoting business sector dynamism and entrepreneurship. Breaking down labour market dualism is a priority to bring about inclusive growth and raise productivity. Faster productivity and output growth, accompanied by measures to limit public spending growth and gradually increase government revenue, would help ensure fiscal sustainability.

SPECIAL FEATURES: PRODUCTIVITY FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH; FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY

Italy is recovering from a deep and long recession. Structural reforms, accommodative monetary and fiscal conditions, and low commodity prices have helped the economy to turn the corner. The Jobs Act, part of a wide and ambitious structural reform programme, and social security contribution exemptions have improved the labour market and raised employment. Yet, the recovery remains weak and productivity continues to decline. Returning the banking system to health will be crucial to revive growth and private investment. More investment in infrastructure will be essential to raise productivity. The government has made significant progress on tackling structural impediments to growth and productivity. Yet public-administration inefficiencies, slow judicial processes, poorly designed regulation and weak competition still make it difficult to do business in Italy. Labour and capital resources are trapped in low-productivity firms, which hold down wages and well-being. Innovative start-ups and SMEs continue to suffer from difficult access to bank and equity finance. Literacy scores are low and job-skill mismatch is one of the highest among OECD countries, depressing earnings and well-being. Many workers are under-skilled in the jobs they hold, highlighting mismatches between workers skills and those required by employers. Improving the education system and labour market policies are crucial to raising real wages, job satisfaction and living standards. The Jobs Act and the Good School reform go in the right direction and need to be fully implemented.

SPECIAL FEATURES: RAISING INVESTMENT; ENHANCING SKILLS

India is the fastest-growing G20 economy, thanks to ambitious structural reforms and low commodity prices. Deregulation and improvement in the ease of doing business have boosted foreign investment. However, investment is still held back by the relatively high corporate income tax rates, slow land acquisition processes, stringent regulations, weak corporate balance sheets, high non-performing loans and infrastructure bottlenecks. Quality job creation has been low, due to complex labour laws. A comprehensive tax reform would promote inclusive growth: implementation of the Goods and Services Tax would support competitiveness, investment and economic growth as will reducing the corporate income tax rate and broadening the base. Property and personal income taxes could be reformed to raise more revenue, promote social justice and empower sub-national governments. Ensuring clarity and certainty in tax legislation and employing more skilled tax officers would strengthen the tax administration. Spatial disparities in living standards are large. India is reforming relations across levels of government to empower the states and make policies more responsive to local conditions. Some states have taken the lead in improving the ease of doing business and now enjoy higher productivity and income. In rural areas, poverty rates are high and access to core public services is often poor. Farm productivity is low owing to small and fragmented land holdings, poor input management, and inefficient market conditions. In urban areas, agglomeration benefits are quickly reduced by congestion costs, in particular air pollution and long commuting time.

SPECIAL FEATURES: TAX REFORM; REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

Iceland is the OECD's fastest growing economy. It has made a remarkable turnaround from the crisis, helped by booming tourism, prudent economic policies and a favourable external environment. Iceland has an egalitarian society with strong trade unions, very low inequality and high gender balance. Nevertheless, as a very small open economy Iceland is prone to boom and bust cycles. Prudent fiscal and monetary policy are warranted in the current economic boom.

The spectacular growth in tourist numbers has provided new jobs, boosted tax revenues and attracted currency inflows, but there are some growing pains with social pressures emerging. Growing tourist numbers are putting pressure on the environment, infrastructure and housing. Furthermore, the strengthening króna has created difficulties for other internationally-exposed sectors.

Iceland is the most highly unionised OECD country and the wage-bargaining system has contributed to high living standards and an inclusive society. Nevertheless, recent disruptive strikes and high wage awards have intensified inflationary pressures and threaten competiveness. Fostering trust among the social partners and increasing wage coordination would make collective bargaining more effective and help sustain the benefits of the system for future generations.

SPECIAL FEATURES: SUSTAINABLE TOURISM; EFFECTIVE LABOUR RELATIONS
 

GDP is set to grow fairly strongly in 2017-18, supported by private consumption and investment. The labour market has started to improve. However, productivity gains are too low to sustain social protection, high-quality public services and rising incomes in the long run. Recent reforms have strengthened competition in some services sectors, but it remains weak in others. Along with high and complex taxes, this weighs on employment and productivity growth. Poverty is low overall. Yet, many youngsters and low-skilled workers are excluded from the labour market, especially when they live in poor neighbourhoods.  Health-care quality is high, but insufficient support for prevention, a lack of coordination among providers and generous coverage of expenditures for most households result in excessive use and spending. A long-term strategy is needed to reduce public expenditure without endangering social protection so as to allow lower taxes with sustainable public finances. Increasing the focus on infrastructure and education spending for the poor would improve equity. This Survey also makes recommendations to foster an inclusive development of skills and employment that will lead to stronger productivity growth and higher living standards.

SPECIAL FEATURES: POOR NEIGHBOURHOODS; HEALTH CARE

The Estonian economy displays numerous strengths, including an excellent business environment, high educational attainment, and solid public finances. However, around a quarter of the population is still at risk of poverty and productivity growth has slowed down. Fiscal room should be used to make growth stronger and more inclusive.
Estonia is well integrated into global trade, and export potential and value-added drawn from trade can improve further. Efforts should concentrate on strengthening adult education, immigration of talents, and cooperation between businesses and researchers.
Investment has weakened, particularly in projects required to increase business productivity. Addressing skill shortages and inefficiencies in the insolvency regime can help raise firms’ investment capacity. Improving the quality of infrastructure projects and developing green investment further is a priority.

SPECIAL FEATURES: GETTING THE MOST OUT OF TRADE; REVIVING INVESTMENT

Growth in Colombia has been among the strongest in the region, reflecting the flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting monetary policy, and fiscal rules. The strong growth and welfare programmes to the most vulnerable groups have substantially reduced poverty. Lower taxes and fees on wages have brought more people to better quality formal jobs, thereby raising both productivity and inclusiveness. Productivity and job opportunities have also been enhanced by recent reforms facilitating the opening of business, obtaining construction permits, registering property and paying taxes. However, productivity growth is still low and the gap between rich and poor among the highest in Latin America. Informality and gender gaps remain high, and social mobility low. Years of armed conflict, stringent local regulations and distortions in the tax system have created disparities in productivity and access to basic services across regions. Further simplifying procedures for company registration and the affiliation of workers to social security, improving labour market programmes, expanding early childhood education, and raising education quality would boost inclusion, social mobility and living standards. Greater and more affordable child, elderly and disability care would open the job market to more women. Raising productivity will be fundamental to continued increases in living standards for all Colombians.

SPECIAL FEATURES: PRODUCTIVITY; INCLUSIVE GROWTH

China has continued to grow fast by international standards. While growth is gradually moderating as the population ages, GDP per capita remains on course to almost double between 2010 and 2020. As a result, the Chinese economy will remain the major driver of global growth for the foreseeable future. Notwithstanding the economy’s impressive performance and unprecedented poverty reduction, imbalances have built up. China’s growth has long been driven by capital accumulation, supported by high savings. However, the growth model has led to misallocation of capital and falling investment efficiency, and to excess capacity in some manufacturing industries and in the real estate sector. High enterprise investment has been financed by debt, fuelled by interest subsidies and implicit guarantees for state-owned enterprises and other public entities. Slowing growth implies lower profits for firms, and therefore greater pressure to improve efficiency. It also translates into slower growth of incomes and limits the fiscal resources available to make growth more inclusive. Income inequalities measured by the Gini index have declined but are still high. The urban-rural divide is large and the household registration system hinders labour movement to where it could be better used.
This Economic Survey of China assesses the country’s recent macroeconomic performance and proposes policy measures to promote higher-quality growth. Policy recommendations relate to how to improve corporate performance and enhance inclusiveness.
 

SPECIAL FEATURES: BOOSTING FIRM PERFORMANCE AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP; ENHANCING INCLUSIVENESS