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The 2018 edition of the OECD Employment Outlook reviews labour market trends and prospects in OECD countries. Chapter 1 presents recent labour market developments. Wage growth remains sluggish due to low inflation expectations, weak productivity growth and adverse trends in low-pay jobs. Chapter 2 looks at the decline of the labour share and shows that this is partially related to the emergence of "superstar" firms, which invest massively in capital-intensive technologies. Chapter 3 investigates the role of collective bargaining institutions for labour market performance. Systems that co-ordinate wages across sectors are associated with better employment outcomes, but firm-level adjustments of sector-level agreements are sometimes required to avoid adverse effects on productivity. Chapter 4 examines the role of policy to facilitate the transition towards new jobs of workers who were dismissed for economic reasons, underlying the need of early interventions in the unemployment spell. Chapter 5 analyses jobseekers' access to unemployment benefits and shows that most jobseekers do not receive unemployment benefits and coverage has often been falling since the Great Recession. Chapter 6 investigates the reason why the gender gap in labour income increases over the working life, stressing the role of the lower professional mobility of women around childbirth.
Paraguay has achieved strong and resilient growth and made progress across a range of development outcomes since it emerged from a prolonged period of economic and political instability in the early 2000s. In 2014, the country adopted its first National Development Plan, setting course towards an ambitious vision of the country’s future. To maintain the pace of economic growth and achieve more inclusive development Paraguay will need to overcome a number of institutional, economic and social constraints that challenge its development model. This first volume of the Multi-dimensional Review of Paraguay analyses the country’s development performance and presents the main constraints to the country’s development. It examines five broad areas, corresponding to the key areas of the Sustainable Development Goals: prosperity, people’s well-being, planet, peace and institutions, and partnerships and financing.
Paraguay ha alcanzado un crecimiento económico rápido y sólido y ha progresado en una amplia serie de indicadores del desarrollo tras dejar atrás un largo periodo de instabilidad económica y política a principios de los años 2000. En 2014, el país adoptó su primer Plan Nacional de Desarrollo, fijando el rumbo hacia una ambiciosa visión para el futuro del país. Para mantener el ritmo del crecimiento económico y lograr un desarrollo más inclusivo, Paraguay tendrá que superar múltiples obstáculos institucionales, económicos y sociales, que plantean retos a su modelo de desarrollo. Este primer volumen del Estudio Multidimensional de Paraguay analiza el desempeño reciente del país y presenta los principales obstáculos a su desarrollo. Se estudian cinco grandes áreas, que corresponden a las áreas clave de los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible: prosperidad, bienestar de las personas, planeta, paz e instituciones, y alianzas y financiamiento.
The Netherlands is experiencing strong growth and tight labour markets, with favourable economic prospects and sound public finances. But there are downward financial risks to the economic outlook and the country is exposed to Brexit. Looking forward, reforms are needed to move toward a more inclusive society in the context where digitalisation and globalisation will alter the functioning of the economy. The tax system needs to be streamlined to support growth, without increasing inequality. Labour-market inclusiveness could also be enhanced along several dimensions. A combination of tax and regulatory reforms would ensure a better job quality for the self-employed and workers on temporary contracts without discouraging these types of work. There is also scope to reduce the large gender gap in part time work and enhance skills of vulnerable workers. Finally, adressing population ageing will also require reforms to occupational pension plans and ensuring an adequate supply fo health professionals.
SPECIAL FEATURE: LABOUR MARKET INCLUSIVENESS
This report presents a comprehensive overview of recent and longer-term trends in productivity levels and growth in OECD countries, accession countries, key partners and some G20 countries. It includes measures of labour productivity, capital productivity and multifactor productivity, as well as indicators of international competitiveness.
This book explores recent developments in environmental cost-benefit analysis (CBA). This is defined as the application of CBA to projects or policies that have the deliberate aim of environmental improvement or are actions that affect, in some way, the natural environment as an indirect consequence. It builds on the previous OECD book by David Pearce et al. (2006), which took as its starting point that a number of developments in CBA, taken together, altered the way in which many economists would argue CBA should be carried out and that this was particularly so in the context of policies and projects with significant environmental impacts.
It is a primary objective of the current book not only to assess more recent advances in CBA theory but also to identify how specific developments illustrate key thematic narratives with implications for practical use of environmental CBA in policy formulation and appraisal of investment projects.
Perhaps the most significant development is the contribution of climate economics in its response to the challenge of appraising policy actions to mitigate (or adapt to) climate change. Work in this area has increased the focus on how to value costs and benefits that occur far into the future, particularly by showing how conventional procedures for establishing the social discount rate become highly problematic in this intergenerational context and what new approaches might be needed. The contribution of climate economics has also entailed thinking further about uncertainty in CBA, especially where uncertain outcomes might be associated with large (and adverse) impacts.
Les Perspectives économiques de l’OCDE, publication semestrielle, présentent une analyse des grandes tendances économiques qui marqueront les deux années à venir. Les Perspectives économiques proposent un ensemble cohérent de projections concernant la production, l’emploi, les prix et balances des opérations courantes et budgétaires.
Tous les pays membres de l’OCDE sont examinés ainsi que certains pays non membres. Cette édition comprend une évaluation générale, un chapitre spécial consacré aux enjeux politiques liés au renforcement de l'intégration commerciale et financière au plan international, et un chapitre résumant les tendances économiques et fournissant des projections par pays.
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.
Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, a special chapter on policy challenges from closer international trade and financial integration, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country and a statistical annex.
Economic growth picked up in 2017, but reforms are needed to sustain Korea's convergence toward the income levels in the most advanced countries. Its labour productivity is only half of that in the top half of OECD countries, reflecting problems in the service sector. In addition, productivity in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in manufacturing is only one-third of that in large firms. The segmentation of the labour market between regular and non-regular workers has resulted in one of the highest levels of wage inequality among OECD countries. The employment rate of women is relatively low and the gender wage gap is the largest in the OECD. Korea faces the most rapid population ageing in the OECD area, which is projected to drive up government social spending from 10% of GDP to 26% by 2060. This Economic Survey of Korea assesses the country's recent macroeconomic performance and prospects. It also offers recommendations on how to achieve the government's objective of a paradigm shift from growth led by business groups (chaebols) to a greater role for SMEs and innovative start-ups through wide-ranging reforms to enhance competition, improve corporate governance, promote entrepreneurship and upgrade SME policies. This should be accompanied by labour market reforms to increase employment of women, youth and older persons and to break down dualism to achieve more inclusive growth.
SPECIAL FEATURES: REFORMING THE LARGE BUSINESS GROUPS; ENHANCING DYNAMISM IN SMES
L’édition de 2018 analyse les performances touristiques et les tendances politiques à travers 49 pays de l’OCDE et d’économies partenaires. Le rapport souligne la nécessité d’approches cohérentes et globales quant à l’élaboration de politiques en matière de tourisme, ainsi que l’importance de l’économie touristique, avec des données couvrant le tourisme domestique, récepteur et émetteur, les entreprises et l’emploi, ainsi que la consommation du tourisme interne. Les chapitres thématiques expliquent à quel point la compréhension des impacts potentiels concernant les tendances globales peut permettre de mieux façonner l’avenir du tourisme ainsi que la nécessité d’une transition vers l’investissement et le financement pour une croissance touristique durable.
Après plusieurs années de crise, l’économie européenne enregistre une croissance robuste, et la hausse du PIB devrait rester forte en 2018 comme en 2019. Le mouvement d’expansion étant amorcé, il faut maintenant faire porter l’attention sur les enjeux à long terme auxquels l’Europe doit faire face. Les disparités de bien-être, le vote britannique en faveur d’une sortie de l’UE, la faiblesse de la croissance potentielle, le vieillissement de la population et la poursuite des évolutions technologiques constituent tous des défis de taille. Pour affermir encore la confiance de ses citoyens, l’Union européenne doit mettre l’accent sur des politiques publiques à même de déboucher sur une croissance plus forte et plus inclusive. Une réforme du budget de l’UE pourrait améliorer la croissance et la rendre plus inclusive en développant l’investissement dans la R-D, en permettant un meilleur ciblage des dépenses en faveur de la cohésion et de l’agriculture pour tenter de réduire plus efficacement les fractures régionales, et en augmentant les financements destinés à aider les jeunes peu qualifiés. Pour renforcer la croissance à long terme et assurer une amélioration régulière des niveaux de vie, l’UE doit relancer le projet de marché unique en levant les obstacles qui subsistent dans les services, l’énergie, le numérique et les transports. L’approfondissement du marché unique et l’accélération de l’adoption des technologies numériques permettront de créer de nouveaux emplois, mais en menacent d’autres. L’UE devrait mieux aider les régions à la traîne à opérer un rattrapage et soutenir ceux qui ont beaucoup à perdre de la mondialisation et dont l’emploi est menacé par les évolutions technologiques.
THÈME SPÉCIAL : CONSTRUIRE UNE EUROPE PLUS FORTE ET PLUS INTÉGRÉE
After years of crisis, the European economy is expanding robustly, and GDP growth is projected to remain strong in 2018 and 2019. With an expansion underway, attention needs to shift to Europe’s long-term challenges. Wellbeing disparities, the UK vote to exit the European Union, low potential growth, an ageing population and continuous technological developments are all important challenges. To further strengthen the confidence of all its citizens, the European Union needs to focus on policies that support a stronger and more inclusive growth. A reformed EU budget could enhance growth and make it more inclusive by stepping up investment in R&D, better targeted cohesion and agriculture spending to more effectively address regional divides, and increased funding to support less qualified youth. To spur long term growth and sustained improvements in living standards, the EU needs to revive the single market project, by removing remaining barriers in services, energy, digital and transport. Deepening the single market and faster adoption of digital technologies will create new jobs but put at risk others. The EU should better help lagging regions catch up and support those who lose out from globalisation and are displaced by technological change.
SPECIAL FEATURE: STRONGER AND MORE INTEGRATED EUROPE
L’économie de la zone euro connaît une croissance solide, et la hausse du PIB devrait rester forte en 2018 comme en 2019. Cette amélioration de la situation économique devrait faciliter la mise en œuvre de nouvelles réformes pour améliorer la résilience de la zone euro face à d’éventuelles crises et garantir sa viabilité à long terme. Une résolution rapide des prêts non performants pourrait contribuer à générer de nouvelles activités de prêt bancaire et améliorer la transmission de la politique monétaire. Les autorités devraient mettre à profit la reprise pour améliorer leur situation budgétaire et diminuer progressivement l’endettement, qui est élevé, ce qui réduirait le risque d'adoption d'orientations budgétaires procycliques en période de conjoncture défavorable. Simplifier les règles budgétaires tout en conservant la souplesse nécessaire permettrait de les rendre plus opérationnelles. L’union bancaire demeure inachevée et des progrès plus poussés sont nécessaires pour parvenir à un meilleur partage privé des risques. Pour distendre davantage le lien potentiellement dommageable entre les banques et les émetteurs souverains, les pouvoirs publics pourraient associer un ensemble de mesures incitant les banques à diversifier leurs avoirs en emprunts souverains et introduire parallèlement un actif européen sans risque. Un instrument de stabilisation budgétaire pour la zone euro, par exemple un régime de réassurance chômage, pourrait contribuer à absorber d’amples chocs négatifs à l’échelle d’un pays ou de l’ensemble de la zone, et venir en complément des politiques budgétaires nationales. Une intégration plus poussée des marchés de capitaux permettrait d’intensifier le partage privé des risques grâce à une plus grande diversification des sources de financement et à une intensification de l'investissement transnational.
THÈME SPÉCIAL : RENDRE LA ZONE EURO PLUS RÉSILIENTE
The euro area economy is growing robustly, and GDP growth is projected to remain strong in 2018 and 2019. These improved economic conditions should facilitate further reforms needed to enhance euro area resilience to downturns and ensure its long-term sustainability. Rapid resolution of remaining non-performing loans would facilitate new bank lending and better transmission of monetary policy. Governments should use the recovery to improve fiscal positions and gradually reduce high debt, which would reduce the risk of pro-cyclical fiscal stances in bad times. Simplifying the fiscal rules, while keeping the necessary flexibility, would make the rules more operational. Banking union remains unfinished and futher progress is key to achieve greater private risk sharing. To further loosen the potentially harmful links between banks and their sovereigns, a combination of policies incentivising banks to diversify their holdings of sovereign debt and the introduction of a European safe asset should be considered in parallel. A fiscal stabilisation capacity at the euro area level, such as an unemployment benefits re-insurance scheme, could help absorb large negative country-specific and euro area shocks and complement national fiscal policies. More integrated capital markets would deepen private risk sharing through more diversified financing and greater cross-border investment.
SPECIAL FEATURE: IMPROVING EURO AREA RESILIENCE
OECD Reviews of Digital Transformation: Going Digital in Sweden analyses recent developments of the digital economy in the country, reviews policies related to digitalisation and makes recommendations to increase policy coherence in this area. The report examines recent developments in infrastructures for the digital economy, telecom markets and related regulations and policies in Sweden. It reviews trends in the use of digital technologies by individuals, businesses and the government, and examines policies to foster diffusion. Digital security policies are discussed with a view to assess its strengths and limitations. The report also examines opportunities and challenges raised by digitalisation in key areas and analyses policy responses to these changes. The areas covered range from global value chains and innovation to jobs, skills and work in the digital economy.
The report reconsiders these policies in relation to their coherence among different domains and in order to foster synergies across government ministries, levels and institutions, based on the policy framework of the OECD-wide "Going Digital: Making the Transformation Work for Growth and Well-being" project.
This report provides a new perspective to the nature of urban sprawl and its causes and environmental, social and economic consequences. This perspective, which is based on the multi-dimensionality of urban sprawl, sets the foundations for the construction of new indicators to measure the various facets of urban sprawl. The report uses new datasets to compute these indicators for more than 1100 urban areas in 29 OECD countries over the period 1990-2014. It then relies on cross-city, country-level and cross-country analyses of these indicators to provide insights into the current situation and evolution of urban sprawl in OECD cities. In addition, the report offers a critical assessment of the causes and consequences of urban sprawl and discusses policy options to steer urban development to more environmentally sustainable forms.
Deutschland erfreut sich einer starken Wirtschaftsleistung. Die Exporte profitieren von einem innovativen Verarbeitenden Gewerbe. Eine rekordniedrige Arbeitslosigkeit gibt der Nachfrage der privaten Haushalte Auftrieb. Insgesamt genießt die Bevölkerung einen hohen Lebensstandard. Der Anteil der Bevölkerung, der in relativer Einkommensarmut lebt, ist niedriger als in den meisten OECD-Ländern. Für die politisch Verantwortlichen geht es vor allem darum, sicherzustellen, dass die gute soziale und wirtschaftliche Lage auch in Zukunft Bestand hat und dass Anstrengungen intensiviert werden, um die Ungleichheit der Markteinkommen und das Armutsrisiko zu senken. Neue Technologien müssen umfassender und derart eingesetzt werden, dass ein gesamtgesellschaftlicher Nutzen entsteht und ein starkes Wachstum im Einklang mit dem Ziel einer CO2-armen Wirtschaft erzielt wird. Angesichts des zunehmend raschen technologischen Wandels müssen die Arbeitskräfte während ihres gesamten Lebens bereit für Veränderungen sein. Eine bessere Nutzung der Kompetenzen der Erwerbsbevölkerung und vor allem der Frauen kann ebenfalls produktivitätssteigernd wirken. Die Verbesserung der Bildungschancen von Menschen mit ungünstigem sozioökonomischem Hintergrund eröffnet allen bessere wirtschaftliche Chancen.
SONDERTHEMEN: DIE PRODUKTIVITÄT STEIGERN UND DIE ZUKUNFT DER ARBEIT VORBEREITEN; KOMPETENZEN STÄRKEN UND BESSER NUTZEN
Germany has been enjoying strong economic performance. Exports have benefited from an innovative manufacturing sector. Record-low unemployment has underpinned private household demand. On aggregate, the population enjoys a high standard of living. The share of population in relative income poverty is lower than in most OECD countries. The main concern for policy makers is to make sure strong social and economic outcomes are sustained in the future and that efforts are stepped up to reduce inequality of market incomes and poverty risk. New technologies must be exploited more extensively, with benefits for the whole society, as well as for strong growth consistent with the low-carbon transition. Accelerated technological change requires workers to be ready to adapt throughout their life time. Better use of workers’ skills, especially among women, can also boost productivity. Enhancing education opportunities for people with weak socio-economic background brings better access to economic opportunities to all.
SPECIAL FEATURES: BOOSTING PRODUCTIVITY AND PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE OF WORK; IMPROVING SKILLS AND THEIR USE
La bienal sobre las Perspectivas de la OCDE sobre la Economía Digital examina y documenta la evolución y las oportunidades y desafíos que surgen en la economía digital. Asimismo, pone de relieve cómo los países de la OCDE y las economías de sus socios están tomando ventaja de las tecnologías de la información y las comunicaciones (TIC), al igual que de Internet para cumplir sus objetivos de políticas públicas. Mediante la evidencia comparativa, informa a los responsables de la elaboración de políticas sobre las prácticas regulatorias y las opciones de políticas para ayudar a maximizar el potencial de la economía digital como conductor de innovación y crecimiento inclusivo.
The current expansion in the United States is one of the longest on record. Economic growth since the financial crisis has also been amongst the strongest in the OECD. Robust job growth has helped bring people into employment and reduce the unemployment rate. Partly as a result, material wellbeing is high and Americans are doing well on average in comparison with residents of other OECD counties. The near-term outlook for growth is strong, partly as a result of substantial fiscal stimulus. In the longer run, improving the business environment would help sustain growth, by reanimating firm creation and productivity growth. Labour force participation rates of prime age workers are relativley low and have only recently begun to recover from the decline after the crisis. Job losses have become more persistent in areas hit by adverse structural shocks, contributing to the decline in participation. In addition, changing jobs has become more difficult over time, which is a concern with the potential for automation and globalisation to disrupt local labour markets. Labour market participation is also adversely affected by opioid addiction, which also costs many lives, harms livelihoods and entails significant public healthcare spending.
SPECIAL FEATURES: LABOUR-MARKET DISRUPTIONS FROM TRADE AND AUTOMATION; OPIOIDS AND EMPLOYMENT