Containment measures to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 virus have led to a domestic shock as large parts of the service sector closed while a negative international demand shock curtailed production in the manufacturing sector that is strongly integrated in international supply chains. In case of the virus outbreak returning later in the year (the double‑hit scenario), the second lockdown will have a lasting negative impact on businesses, leading to relatively large shares of underutilised resources at the end of the projection period. In the single-hit scenario, the initial deep shock is followed by a rebound of economic activity, leading to a sustained recovery that quickly reduces unemployment.