After a strong rebound in 2021 and an expected deterioration in the second half of 2022, GDP is projected to rise by 0.5% in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024. The agreement with the IMF has significantly reduced uncertainty about short-term macroeconomic policies, but the external situation remains fragile. High inflation will weigh on private consumption and will take time to recede. Tight capital controls and policy uncertainty are leading to a sharp fall in investment in the second half of 2022 and their persistence will allow only a modest recovery in 2023 and 2024.

Real GDP is projected to grow by 4% in 2022, 1.9% in 2023 and 1.6% in 2024. Elevated inflation is eroding households’ purchasing power and has prompted the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates at a rapid pace. As growth slows, the tightness in the labour market is expected to subside. Inflationary pressures will diminish as the labour market cools and supply chain bottlenecks ease. A stronger than expected decline in house prices is a key risk to the growth outlook.

Growth is expected to be 4.5% in 2022, but slow sharply to 0.1% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. Headline inflation is broad-based and expected to peak towards the end of 2022, before easing over 2023 and 2024. Real disposable incomes are falling in 2022, depressing private consumption, but should recover as wages catch up with inflation. Low external demand and a deterioration in business confidence will weigh on private investment. Employment growth will weaken, but elevated labour shortages are expected to prevent a significant increase in unemployment.

GDP growth is projected to slow considerably from 2.9% in 2022 to 0.5% in 2023 in the face of high inflation and heightened uncertainty, before picking up to 1.1% in 2024. Private consumption will remain weak until mid‑2023 despite the automatic indexation of wages, which supports household purchasing power. Subdued net exports will contribute negatively to GDP over the projection period, as international competitiveness deteriorates and the economy is highly exposed to a slowdown in its main trading partners. Headline consumer price inflation is projected to average almost 10% in 2022 and remain high in 2023.

GDP is projected to grow by 2.8% in 2022, 1.2% in 2023, and 1.4% in 2024. Household consumption, private investment and exports will remain the main drivers of growth, although quarterly export growth is projected to slow in 2023. Household spending is buoyed by higher social transfers and vigorous employment growth but will also ease next year. Private investment will continue to rise on the back of improving business confidence. Despite higher global interest rates, the exchange rate has appreciated slightly this year, attenuating inflationary pressures. Inflation is projected to decline over the projection period as the effects of higher energy and food prices fade.

GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.7% in 2023 before rebounding to 3.1% in 2024, supported by investments from EU funds. Exports will be adversely affected by the deteriorating macroeconomic situation in Europe, while high energy prices and rising interest rates will weigh on consumption. Inflation will slowly decline amidst stabilising energy prices and subdued economic activity. Energy supply is secured thanks to low dependence on gas, a new pipeline, and a position as a net exporter of electricity. Bulgaria is assumed to enter the euro area at the start of 2024.

Growth in real GDP is projected to slow from 3.2% this year to 1% in 2023 before strengthening to 1.3% in 2024. Higher borrowing costs will weigh on consumer spending while export growth moderates in the near term amid deteriorating conditions abroad. Softer aggregate demand will relieve pressure on capacity, aided by continued recovery in non-housing investment. Labour markets have been tight until recently, but hiring will decline with slower output growth. Wage growth will moderate as the unemployment rate settles slightly above pre-pandemic levels. Inflation will converge on target as underlying cost drivers ease and remaining supply bottlenecks clear.

Growth is expected to slow to 1.9% in 2022. A 0.5% contraction of output is projected for 2023, followed by growth of 2.6% in 2024. Tighter financial conditions, the withdrawal of pandemic-related support measures and the eroding effect of inflation on purchasing power will dampen household consumption. Higher interest rates and low business confidence will keep investment subdued. Inflation has recently started to abate and will continue moderating throughout 2023, as the effects of monetary policy tightening on growth and inflation become visible, and will return towards the Central Bank of Chile’s 3% target in 2024.

Economic growth will slow to 3.3% in 2022 and rebound to 4.6% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024. The emergence of the omicron variant has led to recurring waves of lockdowns in 2022, disrupting economic activity. Amid mounting headwinds, growth will be held up by infrastructure investment and supportive measures that moderate the correction in the real estate sector. A pick-up in precautionary savings, spurred by low consumer confidence coupled with inadequate social protection, is holding back a rebalancing of demand towards consumption. Export growth will remain low amid weaker global growth prospects before picking up in 2024. Despite recent fresh food price rises, consumer price inflation will remain benign due to the current measures to manage energy and food prices.

GDP growth is projected to slow sharply from 8.1% in 2022 to 1.2% in 2023, and then edge up to 1.7% in 2024. Consumption and investment will remain subdued as households and firms cope with high inflation and interest rates and uncertainty about the economic outlook and economic policy. Inflation is set to exceed 10% this year but is projected to gradually return to the 2-4% target range by 2024.

GDP will grow by 2.3% in 2023 and 3.7% in 2024. High inflation and a tight monetary policy stance will hold back private consumption in 2023, and fiscal restraint will contain public spending. Exports will be hampered by weaker global growth in 2023 but gain strength in 2024. Annual inflation peaked at 12% recently but is set to decline to 4.2% in year-average terms by 2024, still above the 3% target.

The energy and price shocks are projected to sharply slow Croatia’s growth from 6.4% in 2022 to 0.8% in 2023. Rising exports, employment and wages are projected to support incomes as energy prices and supplies stabilise, lifting output growth to 1.5% in 2024. Faster implementation of EU‑funded projects and Croatia’s integration into the euro and Schengen visa areas will encourage investment. Labour market tightness, especially for specialised skills, and scarce spare capacity risk amplifying wage and cost pressures.

GDP growth will slow from 2.4% in 2022 to -0.1% in 2023, before picking up to 2.4% in 2024. Higher energy and commodity prices and supply disruptions to gas and oil imports from Russia have triggered steep rises in the cost of living and a risk of energy shortages. Lower global growth, persistent constraints in global supply chains and tight financing conditions will hold back activity in 2023. Inflation will start subsiding in 2023 but will remain well above the 2% target. The unemployment rate will remain low, at under 3%.

GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.1% in 2023, before recovering to 1.1% in 2024. High inflation and falling housing prices will erode household purchasing power. Weak activity in the main trading partners and rising costs will weigh on business investment and exports. Inflation is expected to recede from a year average of around 8% in 2022 to below 3% in 2024. Main risks to the outlook include stronger supply disruptions and persistent shortages on the labour market that would further increase prices and reduce activity.

The economy will weaken considerably as the impact of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine becomes more broad-based. Real GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.5% in 2023 due to weaker domestic demand and a deteriorating external environment, despite support from fiscal policy. Growth will rebound in 2024 to 3.2%. Inflation should peak by the end of this year but remain elevated in 2023 and decrease only as spare capacity in the economy increases.

After a strong first half of the year, real GDP growth is projected at 3.3% in 2022 and only 0.5% in 2023 owing to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, monetary policy tightening and the global slowdown. Growth is projected to rebound to 1.4% in 2024 as consumption and investment pick up. Inflation is set to decline only gradually, remaining above target in 2024, fuelled by elevated energy prices and tight labour markets. Risks remain tilted to the downside as cold winters and further disruptions in energy supply would hit growth while pushing inflation higher.

Economic growth is projected to slow sharply because of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, with a 0.3% contraction in 2023, before recovering to 1.1% in 2024. Consumption will weaken in response to falling real wages but subsequently recover as inflation moderates and wages rise. Export growth will decline markedly with weaker demand in export markets but then pick up as they strengthen. The unemployment rate will increase to 7.9% in 2023 and remain elevated in 2024. Inflation will fall to 3.1% in 2024, when the energy shock will have passed.

Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.6% in 2022, 0.6% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, supply chain disruptions and elevated energy prices have dented economic prospects. Inflation is expected to reach 5.9% in 2022, 5.7% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024, lowering household purchasing power and consumption growth. The decline in business and household confidence, weaker global economic conditions and high uncertainty will hold back investment and exports. Wages are accelerating, owing to recent labour market improvements and the indexation of the minimum wage. Yet, with slowing growth and declining employment, the unemployment rate will rise to 8.1% in 2024.

The economy is projected to grow by 1.8% in 2022, contract by 0.3% in 2023 and recover by 1.5% in 2024. Uncertainty is high amidst strong energy price volatility. High inflation is reducing real incomes and savings, damping private consumption. Despite weakening external demand, export growth will recover through 2023 due to easing supply chain bottlenecks and a record-high order backlog. If energy saving requirements are not met during the winter, gas rationing would imply severe production disruptions.

Growth is expected to moderate from 6.7% in 2022 to 1.6% in 2023 and 2024. Despite the rebound in tourism and continued fiscal support, consumption is projected to slow in 2023 as real incomes shrink and uncertainty remains elevated. Receding energy prices are projected to reduce inflation and support consumption in 2024. Disbursements of Greece’s Recovery and Resilience Plan are projected to sustain modest investment growth in the face of higher costs. Inflation is becoming more broad-based as growing labour shortages contribute to wage pressures.

Growth is projected to decline from 6% in 2022 to 1.5% in 2023, before recovering to 2.1% in 2024. The slowing reflects persistently high inflation, the economic fall-out of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, weaker external demand and negative confidence effects. Private consumption is likely to be dampened by increasing unemployment and a deceleration of real wages. Business investment is projected to slow in the face of high interest rates and falling demand, although this is to be partly offset by higher public investment amidst an inflow of EU funds.

Economic growth will slow to 2.5% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024. Private consumption will weaken as wage growth moderates and dissaving comes to an end. Business and housing investment are likely to decrease as financial conditions continue to tighten, and public investment will also decline in 2023-24. Export growth will remain strong thanks to robust growth of foreign tourism. The unemployment rate will rise gradually to around 4.5%. Headline inflation peaked at around 10% in late summer and is expected to subside over the projection period.

India is set to be the second-fastest growing economy in the G20 in FY 2022-23, despite decelerating global demand and the tightening of monetary policy to manage inflationary pressures. GDP growth will slow to 5.7% in FY 2023-24, as exports and domestic demand growth moderate. Inflation will crimp private consumption but moderate at the end of the projection period, helping, along with improved global conditions, to boost growth to 6.9% in FY 2024-25, in line with the 20-year average (excluding the COVID-19 recession). After a spike in 2022, the current account deficit will narrow as import price pressures abate.

Favourable commodity prices and still buoyant capital inflows are helping Indonesia to resist strong global headwinds. However, domestic demand and private consumption growth is being held back by high headline inflation. With foreign investors recognizing the progress made towards macroeconomic stability and enhanced structural reforms, and expanding their reach in Indonesia, GDP growth is projected to average around 5% in 2022 and 2023 and strengthen slightly in 2024. Persistent tensions on energy, fertiliser and food markets and social unrest ahead of the February 2024 presidential elections are the main downside risks.

GDP growth is projected to exceed 10% in 2022, following the full relaxation of pandemic-related restrictions early in the year. Falling real incomes due to high inflation will hold back consumer spending up to mid-2023, despite significant wage growth. High costs and low confidence will reduce firms’ incentives to invest. Modified domestic demand will thus only grow by 0.9% next year, before rebounding by 3.1% in 2024. As exports in multinational-dominated sectors, though moderating, will remain supportive, GDP is projected to grow by 3.8% in 2023 and 3.3% in 2024.

GDP growth is projected to moderate from a strong 6.3% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2024. The global slowdown is set to weaken demand from Israel’s trading partners. Elevated inflation will slow disposable income and private consumption. Increasing interest rates and lower stock market valuations will weigh on investment. Growth is projected to pick up towards its potential rate in 2024 as inflation abates. Risks are skewed to the downside, and particularly related to a continuation of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

Real GDP growth is projected at 3.7% in 2022, slowing to 0.2% in 2023, before picking up moderately to 1% in 2024. High energy prices will act as a brake on production in energy-intensive industries, while falling real incomes due to high inflation, increasing interest rates and subdued export market growth will moderate demand growth. Unemployment will rise and labour market participation decline, with employment shrinking in 2023. Consumer price inflation is expected to come down only gradually from about 10% at the end of 2022, as energy price caps are phased out in 2023 and recent increases in energy and food prices are triggering wider price pressures.

Real GDP growth is projected at 1.8% in 2023 and 0.9% in 2024. The new economic policy package will support domestic demand, partly offsetting subdued household confidence and real income. Loss of momentum in trading partner economies will moderate exports. After peaking in the course of 2022, headline consumer price inflation will fall back in late 2023 as energy prices stabilise, but then gradually increase again towards 2% in 2024 as wage growth gains momentum. The labour market will continue to tighten gradually, with the unemployment rate falling to 2.4% in 2024.

GDP growth is projected to reach 2.7% in 2022 and to slow to just under 2% in 2023 and 2024. In response to weak disposable income growth and a sluggish housing market, private consumption and investment are set to lose momentum. Declining semiconductors sales will weigh on exports in the short term. Unemployment is set to increase from the current low rate, and inflation will remain elevated for some time.

Economic growth will slow to 2.3% in 2022 and -0.2% in 2023, before rebounding to 2.3% in 2024. The negative confidence shock that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as very high and broad-based inflation are weighing on private consumption. Business investment will continue to slow due to high uncertainty and worsening financial conditions, while high energy prices and lower external demand weigh on industrial production. Inflation will reach 17% in 2022 in year average terms and decline only gradually, to 10.7% in 2023 and 5% in 2024.

Growth is projected to slow to 2.5% in 2022 and 1.6% in 2023, before recovering to 2.0% in 2024. Lower growth in 2023 reflects higher inflation, negative confidence effects of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and weaker external demand. Private consumption is negatively affected by higher unemployment and a contraction of real wages. Investment is underpinned by EU funds and the government’s multi-annual investment programme.

Luxembourg’s economic growth is set to slow to 1.5% in 2023, before picking up again in 2024. Activity has slowed due to broadening inflationary pressures, falling manufacturing activity, and the uncertain outlook on the back of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. Financial services growth will slow in 2023 and high interest rates will delay business investment and housing purchases. Government support to households will underpin incomes and spending. Annual public investment of 4% of GDP will continue into 2024. The labour market will remain tight despite the growth slowdown. Rising prices of services will lift core inflation.

Real GDP growth is projected to slow from 2.5% this year to 1.6% in 2023, but to edge up to 2.1% in 2024. Consumption will be supported by the gradual improvement in the labour market but dampened by high inflation. Exports will continue to benefit from high integration in global value chains, but their dynamism will be mitigated by the slowdown in the United States. Inflation will edge down to 5.7% in 2023 and 3.3% in 2024.

Following a 4.3% expansion in 2022, economic growth is projected to slow to 0.8% in 2023 and 1.1% in 2024. Inflation is expected to moderate to 3.9% by the end of 2024, after peaking at 15.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Private consumption is projected to weaken in the short term, but will gradually strengthen, aided by government support measures and welfare adjustments. Despite a small increase over the projection period, unemployment will remain low at 4.3% in 2024 as the labour market remains tight.

Real GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.0% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. Private consumption will weaken with lower employment growth and rising mortgage-servicing costs. Tighter credit conditions and weakening demand will weigh on business investment. Unemployment will increase and headline inflation will fall throughout the projection period. There is a risk that house prices fall more than assumed, accentuating the downturn.

Mainland GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.7% in 2023 but rebound to 1.3% in 2024. Broad-based increases in prices will weigh on private consumption and investment. Even though headline inflation will ease as energy prices stabilise, helping domestic demand to recover, underlying price pressures will persist. The unemployment rate will increase on the back of a softening economy, but the labour market will remain tight, putting pressure on wages.

GDP is projected to grow by 2.6% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, driven mainly by higher mining production and exports and the recovery of tourism. Still elevated inflation and tighter financial conditions will weigh on household consumption. High political uncertainty, low business confidence and structurally slow budget execution at regional and local levels will constrain investment. Inflation, which has started to decline, will converge to the 2% target in the course of 2024. Informality, above pre-pandemic levels, will widen inequalities.

Real GDP growth is forecast to slow to 0.9% in 2023 due to higher energy prices as a result of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, weaker domestic demand and a deteriorating external environment, before recovering to 2.4% in 2024. Inflation should peak in early 2023 but is likely to remain above target by the end of 2024.

Real GDP growth is projected to decline from 6.7% in 2022 to 1% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024, as Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, supply-chain disruptions, elevated energy prices and rising interest rates weigh on activity. The Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) will boost public investment, but there are risks that implementation delays continue. Elevated energy and food prices will push headline consumer price inflation to 8.3% in 2022, before it moderates to 6.6% in 2023 and 2.4% in 2024. Wage growth will strengthen as the unemployment rate remains low, but not enough to protect households’ purchasing power.

Output growth of 6.5% is projected for 2022, largely reflecting a strong recovery from the economic impact of COVID-19 early in the year. Quarterly growth in the second half of 2022 is being damped by the effects of high inflation on consumption and reduced foreign demand on exports. Output growth will gradually strengthen as these effects diminish. Increased inflows of EU funds will provide additional impetus to investment. Real GDP growth is projected at 1.4% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024. Uncertainty about commodity prices and energy supply relating to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is a key risk.

The economy is projected to grow by 1.6% in 2022, 0.5% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024. High inflation will weigh on household disposable income and private consumption. Continuing supply chain disruptions and weaker global demand will hold back export growth in 2023. Investment growth will remain robust, sustained by the absorption of EU funds. Growth will strengthen in 2024 as supply disruptions and inflation abate. A prolongation of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine would increase the risk of energy supply shortages and higher inflation, with severe negative consequences for growth.

GDP growth is projected to slow from 5% in 2022 to 0.5% in 2023, reflecting higher inflation, weaker external demand and the negative impact on confidence from Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Despite slowing activity, the labour market is expected to remain tight, fuelling stronger wage growth and contributing to inflationary pressures. Nonetheless, real wages will fall, damping private consumption. Growth will pick up to 2% in 2024 as inflation slowly recedes.

GDP is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2022, 1.1% in 2023, and 1.6% in 2024. Private consumption and investment will remain the main drivers of growth. Household spending remains supported by social transfers and an improving labour market. Private investment will rise as companies replace an increasingly obsolete capital stock. Inflation is projected to slowly fall in response to tighter monetary policy. Risks to growth include prolonged electricity shortages and more persistent inflationary pressures than expected, potentially delaying the reduction of policy rates.

Activity is projected to grow by 1.3% in 2023 and 1.7% in 2024, after increasing by 4.7% in 2022. High inflation will curb household purchasing power, but savings accumulated during the pandemic will support consumption. With deteriorating demand prospects and rising financing costs, private investment is expected to remain subdued. The slowdown in key trading partners will dent exports. Inflation will peak at 8.6% in 2022 and then decline to 4.8% in 2023 and 2024.

Output is projected to decline in the near term, resulting in annual growth of 2.9% this year, -0.6% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024. High inflation, rising mortgage interest rates and falling asset prices will erode household purchasing power, holding back private consumption. Unemployment will increase and inflation is expected to recede gradually and close in on the 2% inflation target in the latter half of 2024.

GDP is projected to grow by 0.6% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024. Repercussions from Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine will further weaken foreign demand and thus slow trade and investment. Low consumer confidence will moderate consumption. Rising electricity prices and wages will keep headline inflation above the Swiss National Bank’s target range in 2023, before moderating in 2024. Disruptions to industrial production due to natural gas or electricity shortages and a stronger weakening of global demand are key downside risks to activity.

GDP growth will moderate from 5.3% in 2022 to around 3% over the projection period. Inflation will decline but remain above 40%. This will dent household purchasing power while heightened uncertainty will hold back investment. Export growth will slow as external demand weakens. The unemployment rate is projected to stay above 10% in 2023. Large external financing needs and low reserve buffers leave the economy highly vulnerable to shocks.

Following a contraction of 0.4% in 2023, GDP is projected to increase by 0.2% in 2024. Consumer price inflation will peak at around 10% in late 2022 due to high energy prices and continuing labour and goods supply shortages, before gradually declining to 2.7% by the end of 2024. Private consumption is expected to slow owing to rising living costs, but will be aided by a 9.7% increase in the minimum wage and the usual uprating of welfare benefits and pensions in April 2023. Public investment is set to rebound in 2023 and 2024 as supply bottlenecks ease, in line with government plans. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5% by the end of 2024.

Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.8% in 2022, 0.5% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024. High inflation and tighter financial conditions will further crimp spending plans across the economy. With the notable slowing in domestic production, labour demand and wage growth will weaken. Price pressures will recede as energy prices stabilise and demand slows, but core inflation is not projected to return to the vicinity of the Federal Reserve target until late 2024.